Possible scenario
Pressure Restores Support
30% Chance
Congressional Republicans, Democrats, and NATO governments force a clearer policy reversal after the denial. The White House concludes that the political cost of appearing to weaken Ukraine's air defenses is higher than the escalation risk from continued support.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Tickers
- +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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