Possible scenario
Denial Preserves Ambiguity
40% Chance
The most likely path is that Rubio's denial prevents an immediate rupture while the practical bottleneck over Patriot interceptors and targeting intelligence remains unresolved. Washington avoids confirming a formal cutoff, but allied officials continue negotiating transfer approvals and rules for use against Russian targets.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
- +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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