Possible scenario
Sullivan Holds Seat
34% Chance
Dan Sullivan survives despite the tied poll, helped by incumbency, Republican consolidation, and late undecided voters moving back to the GOP. This outcome is still plausible because the earlier polling showed Sullivan slightly ahead and Alaska remains right-leaning federally.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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