Possible scenario
Recount And Litigation
18% Chance
The tied polling environment translates into an extremely close final count, delaying a definitive winner. Alaska’s ranked-choice tabulation, absentee ballots, and recount procedures become central to the outcome.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.