Possible scenario
Peltola Narrowly Wins
38% Chance
Mary Peltola converts the tied polling environment into a narrow upset of Dan Sullivan. Her path depends on strong Anchorage and rural Alaska turnout plus enough second-choice support under Alaska’s ranked-choice system.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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