Possible scenario
Federal Case Advances
42% Chance
The most likely path is that the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Western District of Texas moves forward on assault-on-a-federal-officer charges while the Venezuelan man remains in federal custody. The government will likely rely on officer statements, medical records, and Austin police or ICE video to support probable cause.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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