Possible scenario
Claim Remains Disputed
40% Chance
Ukraine continues to defend its assessment, but independent traffic monitors and cyber researchers do not find a broad decline in Russian bot activity. The most likely path is a narrowing of the claim from a system-wide impact to disruption of specific Yandex-hosted clusters.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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