Possible scenario
Proofs broadly validated
45% Chance
Independent mathematicians at major institutions confirm that a large share of OpenAI's claimed results are substantially correct, even if journal publication and formalization take longer. This becomes a lasting AI-capability milestone and accelerates institutional adoption of theorem-proving systems.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Bitcoin Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +3.6%
- Business Services +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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