Possible scenario
Governance backlash builds
18% Chance
The proof claims are treated as credible enough to matter but disruptive enough to trigger institutional controls. Governments, journals, and universities move to impose disclosure, audit, and access rules for frontier mathematical reasoning systems.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Business Services +0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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