Possible scenario
Sun Belt Site Chosen
35% Chance
The Pentagon moves quickly from gubernatorial pitches to a preferred Sun Belt location, emphasizing land availability, permissive state politics and proximity to existing military infrastructure. This is the most likely path if Hegseth wants a visible domestic defense win tied to the larger Trump defense buildup.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
- Technology +0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
- Business Services +0.1%
Tickers
- FLR+1.1%
- LMT+1.1%
- +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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