Possible scenario
Europe Drawdown Base
20% Chance
The base competition becomes tied to Hegseth’s review of U.S. forces in Europe and the Trump administration’s pressure campaign on NATO. Governors pitch the facility as a home for returning units, logistics commands or rapid-deployment forces.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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