Possible scenario
Rebound Broadens
40% Chance
Finland's August GDP acceleration proves to be an early sign of a broader recovery after the energy shock and rate-sensitive downturn of 2022-2024. Industrial orders, services activity and household confidence improve enough to support a modest late-2026 expansion.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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