Possible scenario
Property Drag Returns
25% Chance
The August GDP gain fails to resolve the legacy of high rates and weak Nordic real estate. Construction, housing transactions and leveraged property owners remain the main constraint on Finland's recovery.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.