Possible scenario
Sustained Saudi Surge
40% Chance
Saudi Arabia keeps export flows near 2026 highs as East-West Pipeline operations normalize and Aramco demonstrates spare capacity. OPEC+ avoids an immediate reversal, leaving the market to absorb additional barrels through Asian and European buyers.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
Tickers
- XOM-1.0%
- CVX-1.0%
- +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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