Possible scenario
Orderly Lula Victory
36% Chance
Lula narrowly wins the runoff and the two-hour voting extension is treated as a valid procedural accommodation rather than a decisive irregularity. Because he is an incumbent and the institutional path remains intact, the political risk premium fades, though Brazilian state-linked assets remain sensitive to fiscal and intervention concerns.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Energy -0.3%
- Utilities -0.1%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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