Possible scenario
Orderly Bolsonaro Victory
30% Chance
Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly defeats Lula and the courts certify the result without accepting disqualification requests from either side. Markets initially treat the outcome as more favorable for privatization, fiscal restraint, and reduced state intervention, producing a modest Brazil risk-on reaction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Energy +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.