Possible scenario
Courtroom Election Dispute
24% Chance
The two-hour extension becomes the central issue in a post-election legal fight, especially if the winning margin is smaller than the number of ballots cast late in the day. Brazil's institutions continue functioning, but delayed certification and competing narratives raise the short-term risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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