Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Expands
18% Chance
The headline proves to be an early sign of a broader anti-incumbent or anti-Trump wave. Democratic gains extend beyond conventional toss-ups into districts that would normally be considered safe Republican territory.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Finance -0.4%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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