Possible scenario
Policy Pushback
25% Chance
U.S. policymakers try to limit the perception that Washington is tolerating currency debasement to manage debt. A hawkish Fed communication shift, higher real-yield rhetoric or futures-market margin action cools the precious-metals surge.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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