Possible scenario
Orderly Gold Repricing
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the $500 billion inflow represents a durable but orderly portfolio rotation into hard assets. Central banks, sovereign wealth funds, pensions and ETFs continue adding gold, but without forcing a broader funding crisis or a sudden policy response.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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