Possible scenario
De-Dollarization Accelerates
22% Chance
The gold move becomes tied to a concrete challenge to dollar settlement rather than only inflation hedging. BRICS central banks, Gulf exporters or Asian reserve managers increase bullion-linked settlement initiatives, reinforcing demand for physical metal.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Down
- Copper Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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