Possible scenario
Strike Kills Hayya
25% Chance
Israel succeeds in killing Khalil al-Hayya, removing one of Hamas's most visible surviving political figures after the deaths of Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar. The market impact depends heavily on whether the operation occurs in Gaza or violates another state's sovereignty.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.