Possible scenario
Failed Strike Escalates
20% Chance
Israel attempts or is credibly accused of attempting another strike on al-Hayya but fails to kill him. Diplomatic costs rise because the operation appears to undermine hostage diplomacy without delivering the intended target.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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