Possible scenario
Hong Kong Route Persists
42% Chance
Hong Kong remains the main compliant entry point for Russian bullion headed into China, with the trade supported by strong mainland investment demand and limited alternative outlets for Russian metal. The record seven-month volume becomes a durable run rate rather than a one-off surge.
Initial impacts
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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