Possible scenario
Republicans Recover
20% Chance
Republicans regain momentum after the current Democratic high-water mark and hold both chambers. This is not the base case given the Kalshi and Polymarket signals, but a late polling error, better GOP turnout, or improved economic sentiment could still change the race.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Finance +0.8%
- Technology +0.6%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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