Possible scenario
Democratic House Flip
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Democrats flip the House while Republicans retain the Senate. Kalshi, Polymarket, DDHQ, and the generic ballot are all pointing toward a Democratic House advantage, but the Senate map remains difficult for Democrats.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Healthcare -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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