Possible scenario
Battlefield Effects Dominate
20% Chance
The next market-relevant development comes from how Russia and Ukraine respond militarily rather than from the U.S. funding mechanics. The package is too small to transform the war, but it can influence near-term air defense, ammunition, and drone availability.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- AVAV+0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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