Possible scenario
Managed LNG Workaround
42% Chance
QatarEnergy keeps using older, less commercially valuable LNG carriers to move cargoes through Hormuz while reserving newer vessels for safer routes. This stabilizes some LNG supply without fully removing the war-risk premium because Iran has already shown willingness to hit tankers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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