Possible scenario
Iran Escalates Attacks
25% Chance
Iran tests Qatar's workaround by targeting older gas carriers or nearby escorts, arguing that Gulf energy exports remain legitimate pressure points. This would turn the use of older vessels from a resilience measure into evidence that shipowners are absorbing rising physical risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.7%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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