Possible scenario
Escorted Hormuz Corridor
22% Chance
The United States, Qatar, and Gulf partners formalize a guarded shipping lane for LNG and LPG carriers through Hormuz. This reduces immediate disruption risk, but it also puts naval forces and Iranian units in closer contact.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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