Possible scenario
Ukraine-Centered Talks Advance
25% Chance
The rejection of a Trump-Xi format pushes Washington and European allies to design a process that includes Ukraine directly. This path preserves diplomatic momentum while avoiding Kyiv's core objection to being excluded.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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