Possible scenario
Trump-Xi Channel Revived
18% Chance
China and the U.S. adjust the proposed format to address Ukraine's sovereignty objections, creating a broader diplomatic table. This remains less likely because Kyiv distrusts any process initiated by Moscow and Beijing while Russia is still occupying Ukrainian territory.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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