Possible scenario
Contained EU Discipline
38% Chance
The most likely path is that the incident is handled as a limited disciplinary matter inside the European Parliament, without broader institutional consequences. Rima Hassan remains politically controversial, but the issue is treated as misconduct at a commemorative event rather than a major EU political crisis.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.