Possible scenario
Attack Plot Disrupted
18% Chance
A more severe but less likely outcome is that the arrests disrupted an operational plan against RAF Fairford infrastructure or US assets. Even without damage, confirmation of an active plot would raise short-term geopolitical risk and drive modest safe-haven behavior.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Consumer Services -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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