Possible scenario
Pledge Breaks Down
20% Chance
A new Iranian or proxy attack, nuclear intelligence warning, or Israeli unilateral strike overwhelms the pledge. Leadership targeting resumes or Israel acts in a way that Washington cannot fully contain, restoring a geopolitical risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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