Possible scenario
De-escalation Holds
42% Chance
Trump’s pledge becomes an operational change: U.S. forces stop targeting senior Iranian officials, and Israel reduces leadership decapitation strikes after direct pressure from Washington. The conflict remains unresolved, but the immediate risk premium in oil and defense-heavy risk hedges eases.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Consumer Services +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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