Possible scenario
Conditional Restraint
28% Chance
The pledge is interpreted narrowly: Trump stops leadership targeting but preserves strikes on nuclear, missile, drone, and proxy infrastructure. This leaves the market reaction mixed because escalation risk falls in one channel but remains high elsewhere.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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