Possible scenario
Trump Backlash Grows
22% Chance
The four-state tour revives Democratic attacks tying Republican nominees to Trump at a time when GOP polls are already weak. Several candidates benefit with core Republicans but lose ground among independents and college-educated suburban voters.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Energy -0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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