Possible scenario
GOP Narrows Gap
34% Chance
Trump's four-state swing gives Republican candidates a modest but real lift by energizing low-propensity GOP voters and boosting small-dollar fundraising. The effect is most visible in close House districts and in Senate contests where Republican nominees already aligned with Trump after the primaries.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Finance +0.5%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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