Possible scenario
Rhetoric Outpaces Law
42% Chance
Vance's statement hardens the administration's political line, but full elimination of H-1B visas does not clear Congress. The more likely near-term path is continuation of the $100,000 fee, tighter wage rules, and heavier scrutiny of large employers rather than statutory abolition.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.8%
- Technology -0.6%
Tickers
- CTSH-1.2%
- AMZN-0.7%
- MSFT-0.5%
- ACN+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.