Possible scenario
Mass Evacuation Triggered
20% Chance
An Israeli is abducted or Israel concludes that an abduction has occurred, and the government follows through with a large-scale Gaza City evacuation order. The outcome would sharply worsen humanitarian conditions and raise diplomatic pressure on Israel, but the most likely version remains geographically focused on Gaza rather than a regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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