Possible scenario
Soft Patch Confirmed
45% Chance
The August factory-orders miss is interpreted as confirmation that goods demand remains uneven after May weakness and flat durable-goods orders. Markets treat the report as routine macro data rather than a recession signal because the ISM manufacturing PMI had just improved to its strongest reading since May 2022.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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