Possible scenario
Slowdown Broadens
20% Chance
The miss is followed by details or related releases showing weaker business-equipment demand, making the factory-orders report look less benign. Markets reassess the manufacturing rebound narrative and rotate away from cyclicals.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.0%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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