Possible scenario
ISM Strength Dominates
30% Chance
Investors discount the factory-orders miss as backward-looking and place more weight on the stronger ISM manufacturing survey. The result is a mild risk-on interpretation that the manufacturing downturn is bottoming rather than deteriorating.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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