Possible scenario
Certiorari Denied
38% Chance
The most likely path is that the Supreme Court declines to review Gaines's appeal, leaving the lower-court Title IX loss intact without creating a nationwide ruling against the NCAA. Even with the Court's 2026 decision upholding state transgender-athlete restrictions, the justices may view this NCAA damages case as procedurally messy or insufficiently clean for review.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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