Possible scenario
Localized Election Violence
24% Chance
A meaningful minority outcome is that the election-security plan is tested by Jewish extremist activity, clashes around polling sites or attacks on political activists. The violence remains geographically limited, but it reinforces fears of domestic fragmentation before the final vote count.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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