Diplomatic Containment

Cairo and Addis Ababa limit the dispute to reciprocal or near-reciprocal diplomatic measures while keeping embassies and consular channels open. This is the most likely path because both governments have strong incentives to signal firmness without adding a second front to the Ethiopia-Eritrea crisis.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.