Possible scenario
Limited Retaliation Campaign
30% Chance
Iran or aligned groups choose calibrated retaliation below the threshold of full regional war. Attacks are likely to focus on drones, rockets, cyber operations, or shipping pressure rather than large ballistic salvos against Israeli cities.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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