Possible scenario
Direct Military Exchange
18% Chance
Iran's readiness increase precedes a new direct exchange with Israel, drawing U.S. forces deeper into air-defense and deterrence operations. This outcome is less likely than contained escalation but plausible given the March, June, and September sequence of strikes and warnings.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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