Possible scenario
Armed Deterrence Holds
42% Chance
Iran maintains elevated readiness and disperses assets, but Tehran, Jerusalem, and Washington avoid initiating a new direct strike cycle. This is the most likely path because all sides gain deterrence value from visible preparation while still facing high costs from a broader war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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